The fifth year of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine begins without signs of an imminent end. In international analysis, the year 2026 is considered a milestone: either the conflict will settle into a long, exhausting campaign, or a window for a ceasefire will appear. The question is simple — will this year be the last? There are two answers so far, and neither suggests an easy way out.
Experts in Washington, Brussels, and London agree on one thing: the dynamics of the war depend not only on the situation on the front but also on political decisions in the US and the EU, the resilience of the Ukrainian economy, and Russia’s ability to maintain its military machine under sanctions. This is not about weeks. It’s about a strategic horizon until 2027 and beyond.
According to Western security analysis centers, in 2026, key factors will remain the volumes of military aid to Ukraine, the ability of Ukrainian forces to hold and reclaim territories, and the Kremlin’s willingness to engage in real negotiations. So far, there are few signals of readiness for compromise.
Scenario one: protracted war and imitation of negotiations
Why the conflict might continue
The first scenario involves the continuation of active hostilities throughout 2026. In this case, negotiation processes will exist, but more as a diplomatic backdrop than as a tool for achieving peace.
According to Western analysts, Russia views negotiations primarily as a way to buy time and increase pressure on Western capitals. The tactic is to demonstrate readiness for dialogue while simultaneously building up military capabilities and trying to exhaust Ukraine.
For Ukraine, such a scenario means the need to maintain mobilization resources, strengthen defense, and support the international coalition. The military conflict gradually turns into a long-term confrontation with economic and political dimensions.
An important aspect is the difference in approaches within the Western bloc. In the US, discussions are intensifying about what the format of security guarantees should be and whether compromises on territories are possible. European states, especially Eastern European countries, emphasize that any decisions must be made by Kyiv and cannot be imposed from outside.
The economic dimension of the war
The continuation of the war automatically means a burden on the Ukrainian economy. Despite international support, the budget deficit remains significant. In 2026, Ukraine will depend on external financing to cover social expenses and restore infrastructure.
For Russia, sanction pressure also persists, but adaptation to restrictions allows it to maintain arms production. This does not mean sustainability in the long term, but it provides the opportunity to conduct hostilities for several more years.
From a global economic perspective, a protracted war maintains instability in energy markets, affects food security, and creates risks for countries in the Middle East and Europe. In Israel, they closely monitor the impact of the conflict on regional security, as Russian-Iranian cooperation has direct consequences for the Middle East.
In the expert community, it is discussed that the informational component of the conflict is becoming no less important than the military one. Analytical platforms, including НАновости — News of Israel | Nikk.Agency, record how the tone of international discussion changes and how narratives about a “frozen conflict” or “forced compromise” are formed.
Military prospects
From a military point of view, 2026 may become a year of positional confrontation. The front line remains dynamic but without sharp breakthroughs. Both sides strive to minimize losses while maintaining initiative.
Ukraine bets on precision weapons, long-range strike capabilities, and the development of its own defense production. Russia continues to use numerical superiority and massive attacks.
Experts note: if the volumes of Western aid remain at the current level, Ukraine is capable of holding positions and delivering sensitive blows to the enemy’s military infrastructure. However, additional resources will be needed for a strategic breakthrough.
Scenario two: ceasefire and uncertain peace
Possibility of a truce
The second scenario is associated with a possible ceasefire in 2026. This does not mean a final peace agreement. It may be a temporary pause, fixed with the mediation of international partners.
Such an option becomes likely if the political situation changes — for example, if the parties conclude that continuing hostilities brings more costs than benefits.
However, experts warn: a ceasefire without clear security guarantees may lead to renewed escalation in a few years. The history of the conflict after 2014 shows that a “frozen” status does not always mean stability.
Political conditions
To implement the truce scenario, the consent of key players will be required. Ukraine insists on security guarantees that will prevent a repeat invasion. Without such mechanisms, any agreement will be perceived as temporary.
Russia, in turn, seeks to consolidate control over occupied territories. This makes negotiations extremely difficult, as the positions of the parties remain diametrically opposed.
Western capitals discuss various formats of guarantees — from bilateral agreements to expanded commitments from NATO. At the same time, the issue of Ukraine’s membership in the alliance remains sensitive and politically complex.
What a truce means for the region
If a ceasefire is achieved in 2026, it will change the balance of power in Eastern Europe. Ukraine will get a respite to restore its economy and infrastructure. The European Union will be able to accelerate the process of integrating Ukraine into pan-European structures.
For Russia, the pause may become an opportunity for regrouping. That is why many analysts emphasize: a sustainable peace is possible only with control mechanisms and international monitoring.
In the Middle East, they also closely follow the development of events. Strengthening cooperation between Moscow and Tehran already affects regional security. In Israel, the Ukrainian conflict is considered a factor that indirectly affects the distribution of power in the region.
Global context and forecast for 2026
In international politics, 2026 is seen as a test of coalition resilience. Will a united front of support for Ukraine be maintained? Will Kyiv be able to maintain internal stability? Will Russia continue to mobilize resources?
From the perspective of SEO analytics and search queries, topics like “fifth year of war,” “ceasefire 2026,” “Russia-Ukraine negotiations,” and “Ukraine’s security guarantees” remain among the most popular. This reflects public interest in forecasts and scenarios for ending the war.
Experts agree on one thing: 2026 is unlikely to bring an instant end. Even in the case of a truce, the process will be complex and multi-stage. If the scenario of a protracted war is realized, the conflict may enter a phase of long-term strategic confrontation.
At the same time, internal processes in Russia and Ukraine play no less a role than the decisions of external players. Economic resilience, public support, and the ability to adapt to new conditions will be decisive.
In fact, the world faces a choice between a managed pause and the continuation of an exhausting conflict. Both options require serious political decisions.
The question “will 2026 be the last year” remains open for now. But one thing is clear: the outcome will depend not only on military actions but on a combination of political, economic, and diplomatic factors.
The fifth year of the war is no longer a short-term crisis. It is a new reality of European security, the consequences of which are felt from Kyiv to Brussels and from Washington to Jerusalem.
And it is precisely 2026 that may show which way history will turn — towards gradual settlement or towards the continuation of a long, heavy war without a clear end date.