In early November, Ukraine, the USA, and Russia may sit down at the negotiating table again. But at the same time, the Kremlin is seeking another meeting — Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping. And there, the Ukrainian president is not expected.
Author: R.Verter — NANews
The difference is not only in the composition of the participants. In the first case, they discuss the conditions for ending the war with the participation of Ukraine itself. In the second, Moscow hopes to speak with Washington and Beijing as one of the powers determining the world order.
The most curious thing: it is the Chinese leader who can hinder Putin.
Zelensky is ready to go even tomorrow. The question is in Moscow.
On October 23, Sky News reported that another round of negotiations between the American, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations could take place in Abu Dhabi or Switzerland.
Abu Dhabi is the capital of the United Arab Emirates, a country that has already acted as a mediator in prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia.
Zelensky confirmed the preparation of a meeting in the first half of November. According to Reuters, the day before, he communicated with American representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. They had previously met with Putin.
Ukraine is ready to start negotiations even tomorrow, Zelensky claims. But the October meeting has already failed, and Kyiv blames Moscow.
Among Ukraine’s demands are reliable security guarantees, maintaining a strong army, and funding its maintenance for at least ten years.
There is still a long way to go before the presidents meet. First, diplomats need to agree on at least the fundamental issues.
Putin needs a different meeting. And a different photograph.
NANews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency
The Kremlin proposes to organize negotiations between Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit on November 18–19 in Shenzhen.
APEC is an association of 21 economies in the Asia-Pacific region. Its meetings are dedicated to trade and economic cooperation. Ukraine is not part of this forum.
We have already written about such an initiative in NANews, analyzing that the three powers can indeed make decisions without Kyiv’s consent.
On October 24, Eva Seiwert, an analyst at the Berlin-based MERICS institute, examined in The Diplomat the reasons why China might refuse such a summit.
According to her assessment, Moscow would like an agreement in the spirit of Yalta 1945.
At that time, Stalin, Roosevelt, and Churchill discussed post-war Europe, including the fate of countries whose representatives did not participate in decision-making. For Israeli readers, it is worth clarifying: this refers to the conference in Crimea’s Yalta, not the Israeli city of Jaffa.
Today, a new ‘Yalta’ is not an agreed plan but a characterization of possible Russian ambitions.
However, even without an agreement, the Kremlin will get the desired photograph: Putin again next to the leaders of the two largest world powers.
And why should Xi help Putin?
Beijing has its own calculations.
China prefers to talk with Americans and Russians separately. Why tie its own economic interests to Moscow’s demands?
There is also nuclear weapons. Trump proposes discussing the reduction of the arsenals of the three countries. However, China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads is significantly smaller than that of the US and Russia. Beijing does not want to take on the same obligations.
Moreover, a formal meeting about Ukraine’s future without Kyiv would contradict previous Chinese statements about the need for both sides of the war to participate.
Xi may agree to host guests but not participate in negotiations in the format proposed by the Kremlin.
And then Putin will be left without his diplomatic ‘Yalta’.
Russian diesel — already a subject of trade?
Seiwert also draws attention to the economic side of Moscow’s relations with Washington.
The USA has eased some restrictions on Russian diesel fuel. A shipment of 40,000 tons was reported to be heading to America. Russia also offered additional fertilizer supplies amid the Middle East crisis.
There is no evidence of these trade decisions being exchanged for concessions on Ukraine.
But for Kyiv, the problem is obvious: while diplomats talk about peace, easing sanctions can bring additional income to the Russian economy.
What concerns Israel here
Israel has a reason to closely monitor not only the negotiations about Ukraine but also possible agreements between Moscow and Washington.
In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement. It does not oblige the countries to automatically fight for each other but provides for the development of cooperation, including in the military-technical sphere.
Therefore, the weakening of American pressure on Russia raises a separate question: will future diplomacy affect Russian relations with Tehran?
So far, there is no confirmation of such discussions.
More importantly, Israel knows how much the country’s security depends on its own military capabilities and the decisions of its allies. Ukraine seeks guarantees that will not remain just promises on paper.
Trump may meet with Putin and Xi. He may hold separate negotiations with Zelensky. But Moscow, Washington, and Beijing do not have the legal right to dispose of Ukrainian territory instead of Ukraine.
However, they can quite change the volumes of aid, sanctions, and economic relations.
And that’s exactly what should be watched in November. Not the photographs of the three presidents, but what decisions follow after the handshakes.